Конкурс за професор по Професионално направление Науки за земята

Разгледани са очакваните ефекти от унищожаването на ракетите СС-23 в района на полигон Змеево. Показано е, че потенциална опасност от генериране на местни земетресения следствие на унищожаването на тези ракети не можа да се очаква. Използувана е аналогията с взривните работи в района на меднодобивните открити мини край Панагюрище.

The seismic hazard assessment of the big regions (such as Mediterranean) needs a regional seismotectonic model, which reflects the main sеismogenic properties of the different seismogenic zones. Several models have been created during the last several years. A common work combining all available information about the hazard’s model covered the whole Europe and Mediterranean region produced the general map - Jimenez, M. et al., (2001). This map is the target of thas study. We studied the compiled map of the model. The seismic zones fragmentation in space is investigated. The fractal dimensions and the fractal coefficients are established. This work is important for the seismic hazard assessment and its properties in the different regions.

Първи сведения у нас за открити и идентифицирани отложения от цунами заедно с датировка и информация за критериите по които са установени. Поднесена е хипотезата че е възможно това да е в резултат на огромно свличане в древността инициирано от силно земетресение в района на огнище Шабла-Калиакра

The paper show examples of the results of search the common methodology of damage estimation. The examples from different countries are presented and a new consept suggested to the scientific community during the Delft workshop.

This study is focused on some theoretical and applied approaches for natural hazard assessment and damage estimation in case of a strong disaster. The first approach called “fractal modeling” has been applied for the selected cases of seismic hazard – Mediterranean and Balkans seismotectonic models and investigated their fractal properties on large areas. The second one is about the introduction of a loss-recovery function from a natural disaster and its properties describing several cases of damage losses and recovery investments. It is deal with different economical conditions – cases of economically developed, and not well developed countries, affected by a strong natural disaster occurred on a single place. Both approaches are theoretical, but some practical implementations for real cases have been published. The third approach is about a social category – the solidarity among people in case of a strong disaster occurred in certain social medium. The nonlinearity in the consequences of a single strong event and the consequences of several smaller in their magnitude similar events is another example of the nonlinear behavior in many cases of the Natural hazards studies. All approaches are unified by a general property – the nonlinearity of the investigated objects.

The study presents some classifications with quantitative tables about the hazardous secondary effects generated by earthquakes. In general they are: Aftershocks, Earth cracks, Landslides, Rockfalls and Avalanches triggered by strong earthquakes, liquefaction, Tunamsis, etc. Almost all possible vulnerable structures are described in decreasing vulnerability order according to the expected influence on them. Some common risk reduction measures are suggested. Almost all cases of these secondary effects triggered by the most important and strong earthquakes in Bulgaria are presented.

The presented taxonomy is classifying (quantitatively and qualitatively) the different natural hazardous processes and their “vulnerability” to the human activity and possible intentional actions (intacts). Due to the increased threat from different actions (including terrorists), which can generate different negative consequences to the society and the economic development, such taxonomy can serve to the decision and policy makers for the risk management, response actions and prevention and protection measures. The taxonomy arranges the different types of the natural hazards (in the solid earth, water or air), to the susceptibility to intentional acts, etc. The special attention is paid to the different phases in which the geoenvironment exists (calm, activated, critical) and the actions which could be applied during these stages. Same approach is applied to some heavy industrial facilities. Different preventive and protective measures are indicated in a very general aspect. The framing of such hazardous events is of a high priority in the EC security policy.

This study is focused on some theoretical and applied approaches for natural hazard assessment and damage estimation in case of a strong disaster. The first approach is about the introduction of a loss-recovery function and its properties described several cases of damage losses and recovery investments in different economical conditions – cases of economically developed, and not developed countries, affected by a strong natural disaster occurred on a single place. The second approach is about a social category – the solidarity among people in case of a strong disaster occurred in certain social medium. Both approaches are theoretical, but some practical implementations for real cases have been published. The nonlinearity in the consequences of a single strong event and the consequences of several smaller in their magnitude similar events is an another example of the nonlinear behavior in many cases of the Natural hazards studies.

A summary report of the activities during 2003 about NEDIES (Natural and Environmental Disater Exchange System) Project presented to the IPSC (Institute of the Protection and Security of Citisens) of the DG JRC-EC.

Разгледан е нелинеен функционален подход при описване на поведението на групи от хора в екстремни ситуации. Въведени са няколко детерминирани функции и е изсладвано тяхното поведение с цел – управление на застрашени групи от хора в различни опасни ситуации. Показано е, че някои повденчески реакции подлежат на управление (чрез тренировки и правилна информация), а други – не могат да бъдат въздействани.

Направен е количествен анализ в случай на комплексно бедствие предизвикано от природни и/или антропогенни фактори. Получените резултати могат да бъдат полезни при разиграването на различни сценарии при възникване на подоблни опасни ситуации.

Описан е един геодинамичен модел за Егейската арка и неговите характеристики на основата на сеизмологична и геоморфоложка информация. Използвани са сеизмологични данни за установяване на дълбочините на проникване и ъглите на залягане на разделените условно сегменти на подпъхващата се Африканска плоча.

This publication presents mainly the materials produced by Dr. Boyko Ranguelov and co-authors concerning the NEDIES (FP6) activities during his two years stay as a visiting scientist in JRC – TERM (Technological and Economic Risk Management) and Hazard Assessment (HA) Units. The sabbatical stay took place during 2003-2005 in the Institute of the Protection and Security of Citizens (IPSC). The contents are divided in several chapters according to the type of activity:

Publications for the web-site of the NEDIES Project; (concerning Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes)

Publications like papers and reports in different journals or presented on different conferences and workshops (as they appeared in the respective issue). They are presenting the main directions of the scientific investigations during the two years period, according to the NEDIES scientific program.

Reports for the data processing on the Risk mapping activity (connected with a large action on the state of the art on Risk mapping in the PECO countries with some sub actions: Questionnaire distribution to the focal points in the countries, followed by the visits there; data and information processing; pilot projects planning, etc.) and summaries for two maim hazards – Earthquakes and Forest fires.

Annexes referring to some administrative issues – Publications, Useful URLs, Annual reports, etc.

Направен е анализ на комплексния реск. Получени са количествени данни за опасноста от наведнения, които са обвързани във времето. Картиран е риска с полуколичествени показатели.

Важността на проблема за вторично генерирани техногенни опасности от природни такива е приоритет на ЕК. Класифицирането на подобни ефекти и очакваите последици от тях имат важно приложно значение при управление на рискови ситуации.

Демонстрирана е опасността от цунами в Черно море. Напраен е анализ на тази опасност и е показано че тя не е за пренебрегване. Независимо че периодите на повтаряемост на различни по височина вълни са от порядъка на стотици години, опасните последици от подобно явление трабва да стоят на вниманието на управляващите при бедствени ситуации.

Several classifications about the different natural hazards and their possible influence are constructed. The possible early warning systems are considered. Both topics are under investigations due to the many factors influencing these issues. The natural hazards are classified on the basis of their area coverage, power (intensities and/or magnitudes), destructive potential and other physical properties like time duration, medium where they occurred, etc. The reliability, effectiveness and the possibilities of the data collection, transfer and warning issues are considered about the recent early warning systems. Critical analysis is made concerning the physical properties, modeling abilities, transfer velocity, etc. The critical points of the warning systems are outlined. It is shown that many factors are influencing these activities and the reliable early warnings for the different hazards are still under development.

Surface faulting and distribution of surface deformation caused by the Chirpan (M6.8) and Plovdiv (M7.0) earthquakes that occurred on 14 and 18 April 1928, respectively, were used with the scope to determine the distribution of slip and confirm the fault geometry. We assumed smooth fault geometry, based on previous studies, and a standard dislocation model. The faulting zone comprises several fault segments with different orientations and dips. For structurally complex areas like our study area the best model may be to fix the strikes of the planes but allow the dip and rake to vary. Fault geometry and slip distributions were used to calculate changes in static stress and interaction between adjacent faults and fault segments is discussed. Coulomb stress transferred by the Chirpan event has resulted in restressing of the adjacent fault segments, thus hastening the occurrence of Plovdiv event. Earthquake interaction is furthermore analyzed by considering temporal changes of the seismicity rate.

Представена е класификация на методите и техниките за дистанционни изследвания на природните опасности. Оценена е тяхната ефективност по отношение на събираната информация, бързината с която се предава и възможностите за управление при възникване на рискони ситуации.

Southwest Bulgaria is an intracontinental region between the Dinaro-Hellenic and Balkan mountain ranges that has experienced infrequent, but strong and destructive earthquakes. The general geometric and kinematic characteristics of the major faults, mainly the active ones, are investigated, as the seismic activity is insufficient to describe thoroughly the active crustal deformation associated with the faulting. The results suggest a major rupture zone with a length of more than 50 km. The east–west-striking Kochani–Kroupnik– Bansko ‘rupture zone’ was potentially associated with the large 1904 Kroupnik earthquakes, and has been found to transect the region joining the Kochani, Kroupnik and Bansko faults.

In addition, a long-term slip rate ranging from 0.14 to 0.7 mm a−1 has been estimated for some large faults in the region using morphotectonic features. The most active faults are normal ones striking WNW–ESE to ENE–WSW, whereas the NNW–SSE- to NW–Sestriking faults tended to act as barriers to the growth of the former faults, as they do not exhibit much indication of recent reactivation. The stress regime determined is extensional with the least principal stress axis (s3) subhorizontal and oriented north–south. The fact that the active faults show geometric and kinematic characteristics, as well as estimated long-term slip rates, similar to those of the active faults of central and eastern Macedonia and Thrace (Northern Greece) suggests that both of these regions share a single contemporary stress field.
94. Рангелов Б., 2006. Класификации и мениджмънт на риска при природни и предизвикани опасности. В кн. “Научна поддръжка на трансформацията на сектора за сигурност”, ЦИНСО-БАН, АИ М.Дринов, с. 7-17.

Разгледан е широк набор от природни и предизникани от човешка дейност опасности който могат да нанесат поражения на хората и нифраструктурата. Направена е класификация по различни параметри – време на действие, област на покритие и др. като е показан ограниченият пространственно –временен характер на всички наблюдавани върху Земята бедствени явления.

Разработката е отличена с първа награда на Конкурса за потдръжка на националната сигурност на БАН за 2006 година.
95.Glavcheva R., S.Dimova, B.Ranguelov., I. Cecic. 2006. Traces through the macroseismic field experience in Bulgaria., Proc. First Europ. Conf. EES, 3-8^th Sept.,Geneva, pp.468-478. (on CD: Paper Number 584).

Нов подход с нови резултати от използуването на макросеизмична информация за целите на обновяване на данни са представени в разработката. Показана е по-високата ефективност при оценката на информацията преди включването и в сеизмологичните каталози.

Abstract. Activation of major faults in Bulgaria and northern Greece presents significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to populated centres.. We compute stress perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half-space. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We explore the interaction between normal faults in the study area by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (DCFF) since 1904 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 100 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modelled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space. We evaluate if these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. Our modelling results show that the generation of each strong event enhanced the Coulomb stress on along-strike neighbours and reduced the stress on parallel normal faults. We extend the stress calculations up to present and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying possible sites of impending strong earthquakes.

The temporal decay of eight aftershock sequences in the area of Greece after 1975 was examined with main shocks magnitudes of Mw ≥6.6. The analysis was done through the restricted epidemic type aftershock sequence (RETAS) stochastic model, which enables the possibility to recognize the prevailing clustering pattern of the relaxation process in the examined areas. In four of the

cases the analysis selected the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to offer the most appropriate depiction of the aftershock temporal distribution which presumes that all shocks to the smallest ones in the sample can cause secondary aftershocks, while for the rest of the sequences triggering potential seems to have aftershocks above a certain magnitude threshold (RETAS model) and they are expected to induce secondary activity.

For four out of eight cases, we obtained promising estimations of ensuing seismicity after the end of the sequences with models based only on aftershock data. Some features of the RETAS model simulation were also studied, like simulating magnitudes, revealing that it is reasonable to consider in the model the temporal behaviour of the aftershocks’ magnitudes as well. Stochastic modelling was also applied to estimate the duration of the relaxation process, assuming that the end of each sequence is marked by the divergence of real seismicity from the modified Omori formula (MOF) model, the latter known to represent pure aftershock activity.

This paper covers the research about natural hazards acting at the area of the open cool mines (Maritza-Iztok), their influence and the consequences, which could follow the seismic activity by different size at the region. The cool mine is the biggest open industrial facility developed at the territory of Bulgaria. It provides the resources to the thermal electric power plants, which produce about 30-35% of the total electricity in Bulgaria. The wastes from the exploitation and after burning the cool are deposited at very large open pits, which are the sources of the huge possible technogenic landslides. This preliminary study of this area is a tool for the land planers and decision makers about the correct hazards management.

Комплексен анализ на данните от земетресението на 20.02.2006 е направен за изясняване на геодинамичната обстановка в района. Показани са последиците от земетресението върху сгради, съоръжения и околна среда. Анализът показва плитко огнище с комплаксан механизъм, което обяснява в достатъчна степен наблюдаваните поражения.