Рангелов Б., 2010. Информативност на слабите земетресения., сп. Минно дело и геология, бр. 3-4, с.29-33

Разгледани са възможностите за използуване на информацията от пространствено-временните разпределения САМО на слаби земетресения в района на централна Западна Бърлгария. Показано е, че може да се търси геодинамично обяснение за възнакването на слабата сеизмичност в района във вразка с геотектонските модели съществуващи сега.

Разгледани са в попуряпен вид земетреснията в София и района по повод на станали и усетени сеизмични събития от населението. Показана е сеизмичната активност във времето. Дадени са данни за моделни очаквани ускорения от детерминистичен модел. Публикувани са някои общи правела за поведение на населението при близки и по-далечни, силни и слаби земетресения.

The comparative analysis about three recent strong subduction earthquakes (Sumatra M9.1, 26^th Dec.2004; Chile M8.8, 27^th Feb.2010 and Japan M9.0, 11^th March, 2011) is made concerning their seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential. In the frame of the recent geotectonics, epicenter and hypocenter positions, depths of the seismic events, rupture process and some other parameters considered, the explanation about the tsunami generation process is outlined. The recent GPS measurements show great displacements of huge volumes of the Earth’s crust. To know why these similar in power events generated (or did not generate) huge tsunamis, appears of essential importance about the threaten territories and population.

The archaeoseismology is a new developing discipline in Bulgaria. On the basis of the ancient archaeological sites, their excavations and discovered layers and artefacts an attempt to reconstruct the ancient environment is done.

Several sites are investigated and remarkable results achieved. Two examples are presented:

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  Provadia “Solnicata” archaeological site and
  
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  Cybele temple in Balchik
  

The second site (Cybele temple-Balchik) was discovered occasionally in April 2007. The well preserved ruins suggest that the temple had been destroyed by a multihazard disastrous event. Clear evidences of the influence of a strong earthquake (M>7, dated 544/545AD) is observed. The stone walls cracks, moved and broken steles (marble plates with clear descriptions), etc. are among the effects generated by this earthquake. Clear evidence of the tsunami inundated the temple also has been discovered – a thin sand layer covered the ruined roof by a fire.

Both cases show well preserved soil layers and their careful investigations helped a lot the reconstruction of the ancient environment in and around the discovered archaeological sites.
116.Papratilov, M. Velikova, B. Ranguelov & E. Spassov, 2011. Earthquake Prediction Stochastic Models – a Sofware using Matlab Algorithms. Application to the Chile Subduction Zone., Proc. 6th Congress of Balkan Geophysical Society - Budapest, Hungary, 3-6^th October 2011. 5pp. (on CD)

ABSTRACT. Preliminary created stochastic models for earthquake prediction have been performed in several areas over the world – Balkans, Mexico coast, Australia etc. The use of these earlier developed stochastic models is based on geometry considerations as well as the statistical distributions of the main parameters of any two consecutive seismic events: temporal and space positions and the magnitude differences. The new created software is applied now about the Chile coastal area. Data about the strong earthquakes have been used for the model application. Strong effects of migration of the seismic sources have been discovered in N-S direction. Repeatability and predominant distances of the consecutive events are also established as results of these investigations. The physical meaning of such effects is dominated by the clear zone of subduction developed there. After the visualization the diagrams about the next expected strong seismic event are presented. The software could be useful to any other applications in the similar regions. The obtained now bi-modal distributions require the consideration of the most probable position of the next expected seismic event. The results obtained show the applicability of the suggested model. The last strong seismic event Mw8.8 occurred on 27^th February 2010 is considered as a starting point for the next expected strong earthquake in the area. The acceleration of the data processing is due to the application of various algorithms, using MATLAB environment. This simplifies and speeds up data interpretation and visualization of the results obtained.

51.Ranguelov B., 2011. Natural Hazards – nonlinearities and assessment., Acad. Publ. House (BAS), ISBN 978-954-332-419-7, 327 pp.

The research topics of this monograph are related to the natural hazards and nonlinearities, frequently expressed in their generation, propagation and consequences. More practical issues are presented at the beginning and the end of the book. Even in such more psychological topic as human behavior in extreme situations visible presence of the nonlinearity functions appears to suggest that natural hazards and human societies are rather complex and complicated objects to be easily studied by a single approach or methodology. The recent scientific paradigm reflects this complexity needing always multidisciplinary approach to be able to discover the deeper links and more fine elements in the nature and society.

Using the properties of the phenomena and going from a single event with its properties, to the more general view of the probabilistic and stochastic modeling it is rather difficult to follow a unified strategy. That’s why, the book seems rather eclectic, but follows its internal logic to get more views from different positions to different events and their immanent properties.

Several important issues are presented following the content of this book:

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  Fractal properties of the seismogenic models and their relationship with the main geological and tectonic structures are investigated and can help better understanding and development of the seismotectonic modeling and achieve better practical results when implementing such approach in seismic hazard mapping.
  
• 
  The primary and secondary damages follow clear nonlinear behavior. This could be rather helpful when assessing and calculate these damages.
  
• 
  The deterministic approach using nonlinear functions when investigate human groups behavior in extreme situations is performed and can help a lot in the everyday management practice of the administrations in case of the natural hazards occurrence.
  
• 
  The nonlinear elastic plate rebound in case of strong earthquakes is a rather new discovered phenomenon. It can provoke deeper geology and geophysics investigations to discover such effects during the past geological times, when the geodynamics was much more active.
  
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  The complex risk assessment in case of the multihazrd simultaneous actions of several hazards (for example earthquakes, tsunamis and landslides) is suggested as a big challenge to the risk management practice.
  
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  The concept of the destructive potential, limited space-time and temporal development of the natural hazards is developed and could be useful for the damage assessment and risk management preventive and protection measures implementation.
  
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  The modern development of the early warning systems is presented as promising tool about human life safety and society sustainability is essential. In case of the large natural disasters (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, etc.) these systems can protect and safe human lives and preserve natural environment.
  
• 
  The systematic and data base creation about different useful practices and measures against the negative influence of the different natural hazards is a real way to mitigate the consequences. The cost-benefit analysis in every specific case is done and can help a lot the decision makers with the selection and implementation of the most effective measure in every single case.
  

Изучаването на природните опасности, тяхното моделиране, разработването на методологии за комплексна оценка на риска и менажирането и картирането му, са сред основните тематични направления в книгата.

Оценката на уязвимост, използуването на дистанционите методи, възможностите на обществото да се справя с негативните последици, комплексното въздействие от няколко едновременно или последователно случващи се във времето бедствия и други подобни теми са разработвани от гледна точка на възможностите за преодоляване на опасните последици за хората и обществото.

Изследванията покриват както изучаването на единични бедствени явления, вероятностните оценки и стохастическото моделиране, така и обобщения върху масови случаи с основна насоченост за разкриване на нелинейните свойства и ефекти на природните опасности и тяхното въздействие върху обществото и построеното от него. Показано е, че всички природни бедствия ставащи на Земята са ограничени по време и пространствени въздействия, което научно доказва несъстоятелността на тезите, че приближава краят на света и живота на планетата. Дадени са основни параметри на системите за ранно продупреждение, за оценка на последиците и приложенията им в световната практика.

Фракталност, нелинеен характер на предизвиканите ефекти от гигантски природни катаклизми, функции на поведението на застрашени групи от хора в екстремни ситуации, едновременно въздействие на множество природни катстрофични явления върху една и съща територия, количествена оценка на риска от комплексни бедствия са сред основните теоретични теми на тази книга.

Специално внимание е отделено на различни защитни мерки и практики, прилагани по света срещу негативните въздействия от природните катаклизми. Идеята за създаване на широкодостъпна база от данни на такива мерки (с детайлно описание на техните възможности, ценови размери, авторски права и други подобни детайли) представлява революционна теза, подпомагаща избора им от заинтересованите институции и прилагането им в ежедневната практика за превенция и защита на населението.

Дадени са примери както от световната практика, така и по-специално за България.

Книгата е полезна на учени и изследователи, преподаватели и студенти, администрации и Гражданска защита, както и за широката публика.

Книгата е написана на достъпен и разбираем език и е предназначена за широк интердисциплинарен читателски кръг, но преди всичко учащи се от средния и горен училищен курс. Тя може да бъде полезна и на различни специалисти по противопожарна охрана и гражданска защита, военни специалисти, медицински, планински и други спасителни служби, застрахователни деятели и др. Може да се твърди, че подобни книги са рядкост не само у нас.

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