Соня хинкова югославският случай етнически конфликти в Югоизточна Европа



страница13/14
Дата22.07.2016
Размер2.21 Mb.
1   ...   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14

ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ

С какво “югославският случай” надхвърля значението и последиците на локалните конфликти? Та нали новото време е белязано с взривеното многообразие на “освободените” противоречия, потискани по време на глобалното противопоставяне. Те са характерни за всички географски пояси и за общества с различна степен на социална организираност. В някакъв план са израз на търсенето на “друго” време и нови отношения чрез “изчистване” на натрупаното недоволство. Има ли причина, поради която етническите конфликти в бившите югорепублики присъстват неизменно и твърде дълго в информационното пространство и ангажират дейността на международните организации?

С определена сигурност може да се приеме, че актуалността на проблемите, възникнали след разпадането на федеративна Югославия, произтича от онези измерения на конфликтите, които надхвърлят тяхното географско значение. Те възникват като амбиция за разпределяне на територията и ресурсите на многонационалната държава и се развиват като неконтролиран стремеж към независимост на народите, живели десетилетия в “нежелана” общност. Тези конфликти са подвластни на емоционално натоварен национализъм, отхвърлят взаимния компромис и търсят окончателни решения. Но тези характеристики са универсални и те могат да бъдат наблюдавани в Кавказ и Средна Азия. Следователно предпоставките и проявлението на етническите конфликти в Босна и Херцеговина, Косово и Македония “не са оргинални”. Спецификата като че ли трябва да се потърси в готовността да се прилагат различни механизми за тяхното регулиране и в средствата, чрез които те са осъществени.

В “югославския случай” е подчертано голяма степента на интернационализиране на проблемите. Това, което надхвърля географското му измерение, е неговото стратегическо значение. Той е “европейски проблем”, който се развива като “балканска трагедия”. Същевременно самите Балкани са онази част от Стария континент, която символизира концентрираното желание за промяна, за да бъде преодоляна дискредитиращата представа за размирен район. Старата слава на Югоизточна Европа модифицира идеята за Обединена Европа. Ощетен е европоцентризмът на “новото” време и е ограничена амбицията за повече сигурност след отхвърленото разделение. Съпричастност към “новия ред” и стратегически интереси мотивират за намеса и извъневропейските фактори. Откроява се значителна и широка, в географски смисъл, заинтересованост за мир и стабилност и тя мобилизира дългосрочно международните организации за овладяване на конфликтите в Босна и Херцеговина, Косово и Македония. Спрямо тях са приложени различни регулативни механизми, разработват се и се апробират новите подходи и организация в сферата на сигурността. Югославският случай е конкретният повод, чрез който се проявява необходимостта да се постигне по-висока степен на съгласуваност в политиката на международните фактори. Чрез ангажиментите спрямо него се гради “модерната” същност на световните организации и параметрите на тяхното участие и принос.

Изявената ангажираност с мирния процес в най-размирния регион на Европа има и хуманитарно измерение. Югославските конфликти “предизвикват” готовността да се помага и да се отделят значителни средства за хуманитарни операции. Чрез тях се моделира новото съзнание за съпричастност към проблемите “на другите” в отворен свят без граници и противопоставяне.

Ще успее ли в своята реализация тази амбициозна и хуманна обвързаност на международната общност с “горещите точки” в Югоизточна Европа? Разбира се, реалистите ще отстояват сдържан песимизъм. Оптимистите ще заложат на мотивацията и вложените усилия за регулиране на конфликтите. Конкретното развитие вероятно ще потвърди и двете позиции. Много е трудно да се постигне траен мир, когато суверенитетът на новите държави се утвърждава, като се пренебрегват съседните страни. Етническите и религиозните различия са силен и устойчив фактор за противопоставяне и мобилизация на конфронтационната нагласа. Същевременно в търсенето на повече легитимност политическите елити на бившите югорепублики не могат да пренебрегват международната позиция и активност. При трайно дестабилизиране на обстановката в някои от разглежданите кризисни райони тя може да бъде насочена към “капсулиране” на конфликта. В този случай конкретната държава ще бъде изключена от общоевропейските процеси и развитие. Склонността към конструктивно поведение може да се формира и с натиск, ако разумните доводи и преговорите не постигнат своята цел. Негово основание и оправдание ще бъде желанието да се предотврати разрастването на конфликтите, както и бъдещето на младите поколения, невиновни за старите вражди в новите държави.



БИБЛИОГРАФИЯ

Ackermann Al. & An. Pala, From Peacekeeping to Preventive Deployment: A Study of the UN in the Republic of Macedonia, European Security, vol. 5, № 1, Spring 1996.

Agreed Statement of the Geneva Meeting ­ 2 June 1996, Review of International Affairs, vol. XLVII, № 1045, 15 June 1996, pp. 15-16.

Anderson St., EU, NATO and CSCE Responses to the Yugoslav Crisis: Testing Europe’s New Security Architecture, European Security, vol. 4, № 2, Summer 1995.

Arbatova N., The Dayton Peace: The End of the Yugoslav Story or the Beginning of it’s Second Volume / View from Moscow /, in Southeast European Fact Book, 1996-1997, HFEFP, Athens, 1996.

Austin R., What Albania Adds to the Balkan Stew, ORBIS, vol. 37/2, Spring, 1993.

Axt H., Did Genscher Destroyed Yugoslavia? ­ Myths and Facts on the Policy of the United Germany, Europa Arhiv, September 1993.

Banac Iv., Nationalism in Serbia, in Balkans: A Mirror of the New International Order, Istanbul: Eren, 1995.

Basta ­ Posave L., National State and Minority Rights. The Case of Yugoslavia Reconsidered, in Comparative Balkan Parliamentarism, International Center for Minority Studies and Intercultural Relations, Sofia, 1995.

Biberaj El., Kosovo, The Balkan Power Keg, Conflict Studies 258, February 1993.

Bildt C., Implementing the Civilian Task of the Bosnian Peace Agreement, NATO Review, № 5, September 1996.

Binyon M., Iran Urges Islamic States to Intervene, The Times, London, August 6, 1992.

Blank St., Jugoslavia’s Wars and European Security, in Yugoslavia’s Wars: The Problem From Hell, ed. by St. Blank, SSI, US Army War College, 1995.

Blum J., UN Membership of the “New” Yugoslavia ­ Continuity or Break, The American Journal of International Low, vol. 86,1992.

Bogosavljevic Sr., Picture of the Demographic and Social Environment, in Conflict or Dialogue, Serbian Albanian Relations and Integration of the Balkans ­ Studies and Essays, Subotica: Open U., European Civil Centre for Conflict Resolution,1994.

Bose S., Factors Causing the Proliferation of Ethnic and Religions Conflict, in Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability (Implications for US Policy and Army Roles and Missions), ed. by Robert Pfaltzgraff & Richard Shultz, SSI, US Army War College, 1993.

Bothe M., Federalism and Decentralization, Final Report, Fribourgh, 1987.

Brown J., Turkey: Back to the Balkans, in Turkey’s New Geopolitic, ed. by Cr. Zaller and J. Lessen, Bouldei: Westview Press, 1993.

Brzezinski Zb., Post Communist Nationalism, Foreign Affairs, vol. 68, № 5, 1989-1990.

Brzezinski Zb., Premature Partnership, Foreign Affairs, vol. 73, № 2, 1994.

Brzezinski Zb., The Plan of Europe, Foreign Affairs, vol. 74, № 1, 1995.

Buchanan Al., Self-Determination and the Right to Secede, Journal of Internationl Affairs, vol. 45, № 2, Winter 1992.

Buchheit C., Succession. The Legitimacy of Self ­ Determination, New Heven: Yele University, 1978.

Bull H., Intervention in World, Politics, Oxford: Clarendon, 1984.

Burg St., Negotiating a Settlement: Lessons of the Diplomatic Process, in Yugoslavia’s Wars: The Problem From Hell, ed. by St. Blank, SSI, US Army War College, 1995.

Caracciolo L. & M. Korinman, The Euroslavia Project, Review of International Affairs, vol. XLVII, № 1045, 15 June 1996.

Carlson Ad., No Balm in Gilead: The Employment off Military Force in the War in Former Yugoslavia and Prospects for a Lasting Peace, in Yugoslavia’s Wars: The Problem From Hell, ed. by St. Blank, SSI, US Army War College, 1995.

Cingo N., Neki Vidovi Makedonskog Nationalizam, Socializam, br. 4, 1986.

Clark W., Building a Lasting Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, NATO Review № 1, Spring 1998.

Clement S., The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-1995, HFEFP, Athens , 1995.

Cohen J. & Br. Bouds, The Disintegration of Yugoslavia, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993.

Cornish P., NATO at the Millennium: New Missions, New Members, New Strategy, NATO Review, № 5, September-October 1997.

Couloumbis T. & P. Jannas, Greece Security Challenges in the 1990’s, in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-95, HFEFP, Athens, 1995.

Crow S., Russia Adopts a More Active Policy, REF/RL Research Report, vol. 2, № 12, 19 March 1993.

Dauti D., Rallying to Tetovo’s Ivory, Balkan War Report, February 1995.

De Santis N., New NATO Role’s and Missions after the January 1994 Summit in Strategies for Stability in Europa (Interatlantic Relations after 1989), CeSPI, Memoranda 3, Milano, 1995.

Dempsey J., Islamic Nations Press UN on Force, Financial Time, August 7, 1992.

Dimitrijevic V., The Insecurity of Human Rights after Communism, Norw. Institute of Human Rights, Oslo, 1993.

Documents on the Yugoslav Crisis, Geneva Meeting ­ 18 March 1996, Review of International Affairs, vol. XLVII, № 1043, 15 April 1996, pp. 11-13.

Documents on the Yugoslav Crisis, Roma Meeting, 17-18 February 1996, Review of International Affairs, vol. XLVII, № 1042, 15 March 1996, pp. 13-16.

Drozdiak W., Less Ambitions European Union Looks East, Washington Post, March 10, 1994.

Economides S., The Balkan Agenda: Security and Regionalism in the New Europe, The Center for Defence Studies № 10, 1992.

Economides S., The Balkans and the Search for Security, Arms Control, vol. 13, № 1, April 1992.

Edwards G., European Responses to the Yugoslav Crisis: An Interim Assessment, in Toward Political Union: Planning a Common Policy in the European Community, Oxford: Westview Press, 1992.

Eide A., Possible Methods and Ways to Facilitate the Quest for Peacefull and Constructive Solutions of the Problems Concerning National Minorities, UN Document E/CN. 4/sub. 2/1993/34, August 1993.

Frankland Er., Struggling with Collective Security and Recognition in Europe: The Case of Macedonian Republic, European Security, vol. 4, № 1, Summer 1995.

Frohlich St., Needed: A Frame work for European Security, SAIS Review 14/1, Winter-Spring 1994.

Furlong B., Power Keg in the Balkans, International Defense Review, № 5, 1993.

Gallou J., Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Southeast European Fact Book, 1996-1997, HFEFP, Athens, 1996.

General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina with 11 Annexes and Accompanying Letters and Concluding Statement, Dayton (Ohio), 25 November 1995, Review of International Affairs, vol. XLVII, № 1041, February 1996.

George Al., Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991.

Geroski B., Tetovo Trials, War Report № 33, Institute for War and Peace Reporting, London, May 1995.

Geroski Br., Post Election Jockeing, Balkan War Report, Dec. 1994 ­ Jan. 1995.

Ghebali V., The CSCE in the Era of Post Communism; The Jewel that Has Lost its Gleam, Paradigms 6, Winter 1992.

Glenny M., Heading off War in the Southern Balkans, Foreign Affairs, vol. 74, № 3, 1995.

Glenny M., The Fall of Yugoslavia: The Third Balkan War, New York: Penguin, 1992.

Goble P., Ethnicity as Explanation, Ethnicity as Excuse, in Ethnic Conflict and Regional Instability /Implications for US Policy and Army Roles and Missions /, SSI, US Army War College, 1993.

Gompert D., How to Defeat Serbia, Foreign Affairs, vol. 73, № 4, 1994.

Gow J., Another year of War in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-95, HFEFP, Athens, 1995.

Greenfield L., Nationalism: Five Roads to Modernity, Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univrsity Press, 1992.

Gurr T., Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts, Washington, DC: USIPPress, 1993.

Hannum H., Autonomy, Sovereignty and Self-Determination: the Accommodation of Conflicting Interests, Philadelphia, 1990.

Haskins Ch. & R. Lord, Some Problems of the Peace Conference, Cambrige, MA: Harvard UP 1920.

Hayden R., The 1995 Agreements of Bosnia on Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Dayton Constitution: The Political Utility of a Constitutional Illusion, East European Constitutional Review 4/4, Fall 1995.

Hilf R., Regionalismus als Gegengift. Nationalitaten Konflikte und Staatenzerfall, Die NC, № 10, Bonn, 1991.

Hillen J., American Military Intervention: A User’s Guide, Backgrounder, The Heritage Foundation, № 1079, May 2, 1996.

Hirschfeld Th., Conventional Arms Control and Confidence Building Measure, in The Volatile Powder Keg, New York ,1994.

Horowitz D., Ethnic Groups in Conflict, Berkeley, CA: Univ. of California Press, 1985.

Isakovic Zl. & C. Danapoulos, In Search of Identity: Civil-Military Relations and Nationhood in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), in Civil-Military Relations in Soviet & Yugoslav Successor States, ed. C. Danapoulos and D. Zirker, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1995.

Ivanov An., The Balkans Divided: Nationalism, Minorities and Security, Euro-Atlantic Security Studies, vol. 1, 1996.

Izetbegovic Al., Minority Rights and Minority Policy within a New European Architecture, J. Riegler /Ed./, 2-nd Round Table Europe, Viena, 1991.

Jacobsen C., Yugoslavia’s Successor War Reconsidered, European Security, vol. 4, № 4, Winter, 1995.

Janowski Kr., Traffic Jams and Tragedy One Year after Dayton, Refugees № 106, UNHCR, Geneva, April 1996.

Jatromonolakis N., “Greece” ­ Survey, in Southeast European Fact Book, 1996-1997, HFEFP, Athens, 1996.

Johansen W., Pandora’s Box Reopened: Ethnic Conflict in Europe and Its Implications, SSI , US Army War College, 1994.

Johansen W., Deciphering the Balkan Enigma: Using History to Inform Policy, SSI , US Army War College, 1994.

Joulwan G., SHAPE and IFOR: Adapting to the Needs of Tomorrow , NATO Review, № 2, March 1996.

Kaiser K., Challenges and Contingencies for European Defence Policy, in Towards a Common Defence Policy, Institute for Security Studies of WEU, Paris, 1995.

Kallscheuer Ot., Byzans und Seine Trummer, DIE HG/FH, № 1, Bon, 1991.

Karadzole B., Strategic Interests of the EU in the Balkans and Southeast Europe, in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-95, HFEFP, Athens, 1995.

Karaosmanoglu A., Crisis in the Balkans, UNIDIR, New York, 1993.

Karipsiades G., State Succession in the Balkan, in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-95, HFEFP, Athens, 1995.

Katsiyiannis D., Hyper-Nationalism and Irredentism in Macedonian Region: Implications for US Policy, Part I, European Security, vol. 5, № 2, Summer 1996.

Katsiyiannis D., Hyper-Nationalism and Irredentism in the Macedonian Region: Implications for US Policy, Part II, European Security, vol. 5, № 3, Autumn 1996.

Keohane R., After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World, Political Economy, Priceton, № J, 1984.

Keridis D., Yugoslavia (survey), in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-95, HFEFP, Athens, 1995.

Kiss L., Re-emergence of Post-Communist Small States in Central/Eastern Europe: A Research Agenda, in Small States and the Security Challenge in the New Europe, ed. by Bauwens W., Ar. Clesse & Ol. Knudsen, Brassey’s Atlantic Commentaries № 8, Brassey’s (UK), 1996.

Klarin M., Fighting the Culture of Impunity, War Report, № 58, February-March 1998, pp. 32-33.

Kofos Ev., The Vision of Greater Macedonia-Remarks of FYROM’s New School Textbooks, Museum of the Macedonian Strggle: Thessaloniki, 1994.

Kokkinides T. & D. Plesch, Confidence Building and Arms Control in Bosnia, British American Security Information Council, Basic Reports, № 50, 21 February 1996.

Koppa M., Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Strategic Dilemmas, Eurobalkans, Autumn 1995.

Kotsijanni El., Bosnia and Herzegovina, in Southeast European Fact Book, 1996-1997, HFEFP, Athens, 1996.

Kovalski N., Russia and the Balkans, in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-95, HFEFP, Athens, 1995.

Kreja M., The Badinter Arbitration Commission ­ a Critical Commentary, Jugoslovenski Pregled, Belgrade, 1993.

Lansford T., The Question of France: French Security Choices of Century’s End, European Security, vol. 5, № 1, Spring 1996.

Lapidoth R., Sovereignty in Transition, Journal of International Affairs, vol. 45, № 2, 1992.

Lewis P., Peacekeeper to Peacemaker: US Confronting New Roles, New York Times, January 25, 1993.

Lewis P., UN Compromise Lets Macedonia be a Member, New York Times, April 8, 1993.

Lijphart Ar., The Power-Sharing Approach, in Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies, ed. by J. Montville, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1990.

Logoreci An., The Albanians of Yugoslavia, Encounter 71/2, July ­ August 1988.

Lombardi B., Kosovo ­ Introduction to Jet Another Balkan Problem, European Security, vol. 5, № 2, Summer 1996.

Loza T., Adventures in Daytonland, War Report, № 58, Institute for War and Peace Reporting, London, February-March 1998.

Loza T., Realism and Just War in Bosnia, War Report, № 34, Institute for War and Peace Reporting, London, July/August 1995.

Lund M., Preventive Diplomacy and American Foreign Policy: A Guide for Post-Cold War Era, Washington, DC:US Institute of Peace, 1994.

Lutovac M., The Albanian Alternative after Dayton Agreement, Review of International Affairs, № 1046-47, 15 July-15 August 1996.

Lutovac Z., Minorities, CSCE and the Yugoslav Crisis, Belgrade, 1995.

Lynch Al. & R. Lucik, Russian Foreign Policy and the War in the Former Yugoslavia, REF/RL Research Report, № 41, 15 October 1993.

Magas Br., The War in Yugoslavia, RUSI Jornal, Winter 1991.

Maliqi Shk., Characteristics and Perspectives of the Albanian Movement, in Conflict or Dialogue, Serbian Albanian Relations and Integration of the Balkans ­ Studies and Essays, Subotica: Open U., European Civil Centre for Conflict Resolution, 1994.

Maliqi Shk., Parallel Words, War Report, № 58, Bulletin of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, London, February ­ March 1998.

Manoli P., Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, in Southeast European Fact Book, 1996-1997, HFEFP, Athens, 1996.

Manuera G., Preventing Armed Conflict in Europe: Lessons from Recent Experience, Institute for Security Studies, WEU, Paris, Chaillot Papers 15/16, June 1994.

Maravall J., The Outcomes of Democracy: The Southern European Experience, in Southeast European Year Book, 1994-95, HFEFP, Athens, 1995.

Markotich Kr., Rump Yugoslavia and Macedonia Deal the Cards of Mutual Recognition, Transition, 31/5 1996.

Markovic Br., Yugoslav Crisis and the World, Chronology of Events January 1990 ­ October 1995, Institute for International Politics and Economics, Belgrade, 1996.

Marquand R., EC Hopes Fade Over Yugoslavia, Christian Science Monitor, 16 September, 1991.

Mazarr M., The Military Dilemmas of Humanitarian Intervention, Security Dialogue, vol. 24, № 2 , June 1993.

Mearsheimer J., Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War, International Security 15/1 , Summer 1990.

Mets St., The Future of the United Nations: Implications for Peace Operations, Report of Roundtable, sponsored by SSI, US Army War College, Pennsylvania, October 5, 1993.

Mickey R., Macedonia: Unstable in a stable Way, Transition, vol. 1, № 1, 1995.

Milo P., Albanian National Question Within the Context of the Current Balkan Crisis, in Comparative Balkan Parliamentarism, International Center for Minority Studies and Intercultural Relations, Sofia, 1995.

Mlyn Er., The OSCE, the United States and European Security, European Security, vol. 5, № 3, Autumn 1996.

Moore P., Potential Shortfalls of the Dayton Agreement, Transition, vol. 2, № 2, 26 January 1996.

Moore P., The Widening Warfare in the Former Yugoslavia, RFE/RL Research Report 1, January 1993.

Muhic F., Problemi Nacionalizma u SRBosni I Hercegovini, Socializam, br. 4, 1986.

Nerlich U., Balkan Security in the European Post-Cold War Enviroment: Challenges and Policy Choices for the West, The Volatile Powder Keg, London 1994, pp. 275-292.

Newhouse J., The Diplomatic Round, The New Yorker, New York, August 24, 1992.

Nikolic P., Promene Ustava u Federalnim Drzavama, Pravni Zivot, vol. 37, br. II, 1987.

Nopens P., Peace Operations as an Instrument of Conflict Prevention, Securite et Strategie, Centre d’Etudes de Defense, № 46, April 1995.

Pajic Z., Protectorates Lost, War Report, № 58, Institute for War and Peace Reporting, London, February-March 1998.

Pellet A., The Opinions of the Badinter Arbitration Committee. A Second Breath for the Self-Determination of Peoples, European Journal of International Law, vol. 3, № 1, 1992.

Peric I., Savremeni Hrvatski Nationalizam. Izvori I Izrazi, Zagreb, 1984.

Perry D., Crisis in the Making Macedonia and Its Neigbors, Sudosteurope, vol. 43, № 1-2, 1994.

Perry D., Macedonia: A Balkan Problem and a European Dilemma, RFE/RL Research Report 1/25, 19 June 1992.
1   ...   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14


База данных защищена авторским правом ©obuch.info 2016
отнасят до администрацията

    Начална страница